The signal and the noise : why so many predictions fail--but some don't
(Book)

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Published
New York : Penguin Press, 2012.
ISBN
9781594204111, 159420411X, 9780143124009, 0143124005, 9780143125082, 0143125087
Lexile measure
1260L
Status
Eisenhower Public Library District - Stacks
519.542 SIL
1 available

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Published
New York : Penguin Press, 2012.
Format
Book
Physical Desc
534 pages : illustrations ; 25 cm
Language
English
ISBN
9781594204111, 159420411X, 9780143124009, 0143124005, 9780143125082, 0143125087
Lexile measure
1260

Notes

Bibliography
Includes bibliographical references (pages 459-514) and index.
Description
The author has built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and has become a national sensation as a blogger. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, he examines the world of prediction.
Description
Human beings have to make plans and strategize for the future. As the pace of our lives becomes faster and faster, we have to do so more often and more quickly. But are our predictions any good? Is there hope for improvement? In this book the author examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy, ever-increasing data. Many predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. We are wired to detect a signal, and we mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the prediction paradox: the more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, and the more we are willing to learn from our mistakes, the more we can turn information into knowledge and data into foresight. The author examines both successes and failures to determine what more accurate forecasters have in common. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, he visits innovative forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. Even when their innovations are modest, we can learn from their methods. How can we train ourselves to think probabilistically, as they do? How can the insights of an eighteenth-century Englishman unlock the twenty-first-century challenges of global warming and terrorism? How can being smarter about the future help us make better decisions in the present?
Target Audience
1260L,Lexile

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Citations

APA Citation, 7th Edition (style guide)

Silver, N. (2012). The signal and the noise: why so many predictions fail--but some don't . Penguin Press.

Chicago / Turabian - Author Date Citation, 17th Edition (style guide)

Silver, Nate, 1978-. 2012. The Signal and the Noise: Why so Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't. Penguin Press.

Chicago / Turabian - Humanities (Notes and Bibliography) Citation, 17th Edition (style guide)

Silver, Nate, 1978-. The Signal and the Noise: Why so Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't Penguin Press, 2012.

MLA Citation, 9th Edition (style guide)

Silver, Nate. The Signal and the Noise: Why so Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't Penguin Press, 2012.

Note! Citations contain only title, author, edition, publisher, and year published. Citations should be used as a guideline and should be double checked for accuracy. Citation formats are based on standards as of August 2021.

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